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번호별 정리
1. 위키스 자료번호 1-10 (NR/NT) 2. 위키스 자료번호 11-20 3. 위키스 자료번호 21-30 4. 위키스 자료번호 31-40 (32만 업데이트) 5. 위키스 자료번호 41-50 (42만 업데이트) 6. 위키스 자료번호 51-60 (59 60만 업데이트)
현행
[61] Taiwan: Can a perfect storm be averted?
2016년 차이잉원 총통이 대만 당국의 지도자로 선출되면서 대만 해협을 둘러싼 일련의 부정적인 상호작용이 시작되었습니다. 도널드 트럼프의 당선과 미국의 '하나의 중국 정책'을 약화시키려는 그의 노력은 상황을 더욱 악화시켰습니다. 타이완은 베이징의 레드라인에 도전할 용기를 얻었지만, 베이징은 타이완에 더 많은 압력을 가할 필요가 있다고 생각했습니다. 더 큰 역량과 대중의 압력을 받고 있는 중국은 대만 독립이라는 도전에 대응하기 위해 보다 적극적인 접근 방식을 취했습니다. 타이베이, 베이징, 워싱턴 간의 악순환적인 상호 작용 과정은 마치 퍼펙트 스톰이 형성되는 과정과 유사합니다. 이 백서에서는 시간이 지남에 따라 이러한 3자 간 상호 작용이 어떻게 진화했는지 검토하고, 이러한 상황을 형성하는 주요 요인을 식별하며, 관련된 주요 요인을 분석하여 향후 상황을 추측합니다. 이 논문은 퍼펙트 스톰이 실제로 현실화되고 있지만 이를 피할 수 있다고 주장합니다. 하지만 그러기 위해서는 3자가 합리적이고 실용적인 접근 방식을 통해 서로의 요구와 욕구를 관리해야 합니다.
양안관계 문서에서 주요 내용등이 인용됨.
[62] Fairbank, John King. “On the Ch’ing Tributary System.” Harvard Journal of Asiatic Studies 6, no. 2 (1941): 135-246.
[63] Perdue, Peter. “The Tenacious Tributary System.” Journal of Contemporary China 24, no. 96 (2015): 1002-1014.
[64] Zhang, Feng. “Rethinking the ‘Tribute System’: Broadening the Conceptual Horizon of Historical East Asian Politics.” Chinese Journal of International Politics 2 (2009): 545-574.
[65] Zhang, Yongjin and Barry Buzan. “The Tributary System as International Society in Theory and Practice.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 5 (2012): 3-36.
[66] Ford, Christopher A. The Mind of Empire: China's History and Modern Foreign Relations 2010. Chapters 6, 7, 10, and 14-16.
[67] Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. Chapter 4, 7, and 8 (pp. 285-292).
[68]Mitter, Rana. A Bitter Revolution: China’s Struggle with the Modern World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005, pp. 102-152.
[69] Lary, Diana. China’s Civil War: A Social History, 1945-1949. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Chapter 4. (A scanned copy will be provided)
[70] Duara, Prasenjit. Sovereignty and Authenticity: Manchukuo and the East Asian Modern. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003. Chapter 6. (A scanned copy will be provided)
71 - 80
[71] Wang, Dong. “The Discourse of Unequal Treaties in Modern China.” Pacific Affairs 76, no. 3 (2003): 399-425. [72] Waltz, Kenneth. Man, the state, and war: A theoretical analysis. Columbia University Press, 2018. [73] Paul, T. V. "Realist Constructivism: Rethinking International Relations Theory, J. Samuel Barkin, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010, pp. 194." Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique 44.4 (2011): 980-981. [74] Ripsman, Norrin M., Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell. Neoclassical realist theory of international politics. Oxford University Press, 2016. [75] Morgenthau, Hans Joachim, Kenneth W. Thompson, and W. David Clinton. "Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace." (1985). [76] Stepan, Alfred. “Comparative Theory and Political Practice: Do We Need a ‘State-Nation’ Model as Well as a ‘Nation-State’ Model?” Government and Opposition, vol. 43, no. 1, 2008, pp. 1–25., doi:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2007.00241.x. 링크 [77] Schlumberger, Oliver, et al. “How Authoritarianism Transforms: A Framework for the Study of Digital Dictatorship.” Government and Opposition, 2023, pp. 1–23., doi:10.1017/gov.2023.20. [78] Labanino, Rafael, and Michael Dobbins. “The Macro-Political Context and Interest Groups' Access to Policymakers.” Government and Opposition, 2023, pp. 1–26., doi:10.1017/gov.2023.17. [79] Carothers, Christopher. “The Autocrat's Corruption Dilemma.” Government and Opposition, vol. 58, no. 1, 2023, pp. 22–38., doi:10.1017/gov.2021.23. [80] Ayan Musil, Pelin, and Şebnem Yardımcı-Geyikçi. “Transnationalization of Opposition Strategy under Competitive Authoritarianism: Evidence from Turkey and Hungary.” Government and Opposition, 2023, pp. 1–19., doi:10.1017/gov.2023.19.
81 - 90
[81] Book
Bull, Hedley. The anarchical society: a study of order in world politics. Bloomsbury Publishing, 2012.
[82] Book
[82] Skilling, Harold Gordon, and Franklyn Griffiths, eds. Interest groups in Soviet politics. Princeton University Press, 2019.
[83] Book
[83] Berry, Jeffrey M. Lobbying for the people: The political behavior of public interest groups. Princeton University Press, 2015. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt13x11mt?
[84] Book
[84] Cigler, Allan J., Burdett A. Loomis, and Anthony J. Nownes, eds. Interest group politics. Cq Press, 2015.
[85] A comparative study of interest groups and the political process
Almond, Gabriel A. "A comparative study of interest groups and the political process." American Political Science Review 52.1 (1958): 270-282.
[86] Interest groups in the USSR: The impact of political sensitivity on group influence
Kelley, Donald R. "Interest groups in the USSR: The impact of political sensitivity on group influence." The Journal of Politics 34.3 (1972): 860-888.
[87] The evolution of telecommunications policy-making: Comparative analysis of China and India
Liu, Chun, and Krishna Jayakar. "The evolution of telecommunications policy-making: Comparative analysis of China and India." Telecommunications Policy 36.1 (2012): 13-28.
[88] 독재의 권력투쟁에 대한 비교연구
본 논문은 느슨한 엘리트 연합의 집단지도체제가 개인독재로 퇴행하는 과정에서 광범위하게 관찰되는 독재의 책략을 설명할 수 있는 가설을 제시하고 일치법과 차이법의 비교방법론에 의거하여선정한 공산국가와 중동독재를 비교분석한다. 독재정치에 만연한 비밀주의와 정보의 불확실성은 위험한 집단행동에 필요한 엘리트 사이의 공동지식의 형성을 방해하고 조정이 아닌 죄수의 딜레마를조장한다. 비교연구는 인사 정책과 숙청 방식 등에서 정보의 불확실성을 유지하기 위해 독재자들이공통적으로 사용하는 구체적 술책을 밝히고 있다. 동시에 독재자는 낮은 수준에서 조절된 개인우상화를 권력투쟁 초기부터 시도하여 신참 엘리트의 조정을 도모하여 세를 확장한다. 점진적인 숙청으로 무기력해진 엘리트가 마지막으로 벌이는 최초이자 최후의 집단 저항이라는 가설 역시 정보의문제와 연결되어 있다. 이러한 가설들을 김일성, 마오쩌둥, 사담 후세인, 하페즈 알아사드, 스탈린의 사례에 대입하여 가설들의 경험적 타당성을 살펴본다.
[89] Book
Lowenhardt, John. Decision Making in Soviet Politics. Springer, 1981.
[90] Book
Schelling, Thomas C. "Arms and influence." Strategic Studies. Routledge, 2008. 96-114.
91 - 100
[91] Xi's age of stagnation
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-age-stagnation
[92] Innovation Power
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/eric-schmidt-innovation-power-technology-geopolitics
[93] Delusions of Détente
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-delusions-detente-rivals